Friday, October 31, 2008

Review of Past Predictions

I think it's a good time to reflect on some of the predictions I've made in past here goes nothing....

NFL (Preseason):
With the season almost half over for most teams, there are some surprising teams that have already won more games than I thought they could in 16. Miami has 3 wins already which was what I predicted for the season. The Bengals and Lions are both 0-7 but I had them both at 7-9....woops. The Titans are the reverse, at 7-0 with me picking them for 8-8. San Diego was a team I thought would have a big year in a weak division....I said 13-3 but they're 3-5 right now. I also had the Raiders at 9-7, another pick that isn't looking too great. I had the Falcons winning 2 games on the year which they've already doubled. One last definite wrong is the Seahawks at 9-7 while they are 2-5 right now. A lot of my other picks should be close but these are the ones that look bad right now.

NCAA (Top 10):
I had USC at 1 going undefeated. That one hurts. My #2 was Oklahoma with their only loss being to far so good with that one. #3 is Florida with losses to Georgia and Florida State. They've already dropped a game to Ole Miss so we'll see how the Gators do in these games later in the year. #4 Georgia.....loss to Florida and Auburn. I don't see the Dawgs losing to Auburn but they very well could lose to the Gators tomorrow afternoon. I had Ohio State losing to USC and Illinois. Half way there but didn't call the Penn State victory over OSU. West Virginia was another dissapointment as I had them losing once, to USF. VA Tech has struggled at times as well. I had them losing once, to Florida State. Missouri was supposed to lose to Texas according to my preseason picks but not Okla State. I also had Oklahoma beating Mizzou in the Big XII Championship Game. I had Illinois with 3 losses and they've dissapointed as they are 4-4 right now. One prediction I am proud of is my pick of Oregon State to the Rose Bowl. This can still happen amazingly. If the Beavers run the table to finish the year, they will win the Pac-10 title over USC in a tiebreaker at worst case scenerio. We'll see if they can do it but I remember picking that as my major upset pick for the year. Out of the 10 teams I picked for BCS games, I expected probably 6-7 to actually make it. Right now, BYU won't make it, cutting my chances down to 9 of 10. West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Oregon State all need to win their conference title to have a chance. Ohio State can sneak in after Penn State as the Big Ten #2. Oklahoma and Missouri both are not going to the BCS but one could certainly make it as the conference champ qualifies automatically.

These were made at the All-Star break with win total predictions. Here's a breakdown of how it turned out: (Predicted Total- Actual Total= Score)
Boston (-1), New York (-1), Tampa Bay (+11), Toronto (+7), Baltimore (-9)
Detroit (-14), Chicago (+3), Minnesota (+4), Cleveland (+10), Kansas City (+7)
LA Angels (-2), Texas (-7), Oakland (-7), Seattle (-2)

Philadelphia (+1), New York (+1), Atlanta (-10), Florida (+10), Washington (-6)
Chicago (+2), Milwaukee (+1), St. Louis (Correct), Houston (+1), Cincinnati (+1), Pittsburgh (-2)
Los Angeles (+1), Colorado (-4), Arizona (+6), San Francisco (+1), San Diego (-4)

Well I did pretty well with the NL Central with every record within two games including my one exact prediction (St. Louis). I should have flip flopped the Braves and Marlins. I predicted the D-Backs to struggle more than they ended up doing but overall my NL was pretty good. I had some bad picks in the AL (Cleveland, Toronto and Tampa Bay outperformed by double digits). Detroit never came around to play well. Overall I would say I did okay. I would have liked to have seen what numbers I would have made in the preseason. We'll see next year when I make my picks in March. I did call all four NL playoff teams including my switch of the Mets with the Brewers, saying they'll finish within a game of each other. That was solid. In the AL, I had the Yanks and Tigers going while it ended up being the Rays and White Sox. Oops....I also had Boston winning the division which they did not.

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