Friday, February 5, 2010
Super Bowl 44 Preview
Enough has been written about this game that I will give a short summary of what I think will happen. The Colts are the favorites (deservedly so) and the Saints are "destiny's darlings". Both offenses are among the NFL's best. The defenses are quick and underrated. They give up yards, yet always put their teams in position to win. I've been predicting for the past 2 weeks Saints 27, Colts 24. I will stick with this pick. My MVP pick will be Drew Brees (with big games from Marques Colston and Pierre Thomas). One of these teams is going to be down a score late in the game, with the chance to become champion only a score away. That team will be New Orleans. They will march down the field to score the TD that propels them ahead of Indianapolis.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Adam's 5 Lock Super Bowl Props
Here are the 5 props I'd play (after looking at the list from our friends at Bodog.com). Now obviously these odds will be different at different places but this should give you a relative idea of what people are betting on these things. These are the 5 I think are the best plays, factoring in the odds along with my personal feelings on how likely it is that this will happen. I'll only do things from the game, not how many times they'll show Archie Manning or Kim Kardashian (those props are for the non-football fans). We'll say I started with a fake 1,000 units to gamble with here:
1) Largest lead by either team, o/u 15.5...both sides going off at -115. I'd say let's put 200 ON THE UNDER. I see this being a close game throughout with neither team leading by 16 or more. This is essentially 3 possessions and with the way both offense can move up & down the field, it's tough to see either defense really put on the type of show needed to win it for the Overs.
2) Saints 1st half pts, o/u 13!! Over is going off at -130, under at even. I'll say put 250 ON THE OVER. Two TD's for an impressive offense isn't that much to ask for. The Colts are the slower starters of these two teams (in comparison, they're 1st half total is 16). New Orleans will definately get at least 14 1st half points....this seems too good to be true.
3) This is one I got off of the B.S. Report. Will both teams make a FG of at least 33 yards? I will go against Bill and Chad Millman to say that YES it will happen. Both of these teams move the football, giving more chances to have drives stalled in the opponents territory. That could lead to more FG's tries than an average game but for a 33 yard FG, we need the offense to be stopped at the 16 yard line or further back. YES is the pick (+170) for me. No (-210) is where the $ is going so far. We'll put 150 fake units on the YES (+170).
4) Will there be a lead change in the 2nd half? (Yes +150, No -180) I'll put 250 fake units on Yes. I see this being a back and forth game, with the chance that one team goes into the half down a score (1-6) points and comes out to take the lead. The Colts do this all the time when they're losing and the Saints have had plenty of 2nd half lead changes in their games this season. I might make this my lock. Okay it's my lock. THERE WILL BE A LEAD CHANGE IN THE 2ND HALF!
5) Total # of Pass INT's in the game: (2.5.....Over +160, Under -200). I'll say go with the OVER in this one. Manning has thrown some picks this year and we could see at least one from him. The Colts defense is nasty in the back end, giving us at least 1 pick of Brees. I also see one of these great players getting one of those fluke picks (off a guy's leg or helmet) or something happening that could change the game. Over is the pick and we'll put our remaining 150 units on it.
Summary:
1) Largest Lead by Either Team: UNDER 15.5 (-115, 200 units)
2) Saints O/U 1st Half Pts: OVER 13 (-130, 250 units)
3) Both Teams Make a FG over 33 yds? YES (+170, 150 units)
4) Lead Change in the 2nd half? YES (+150, 250 units)
5) Total INT's OVER 2.5 (+160, 150 units)
MVP of the Game:
It's hard not to pick either QB (depending on who you think will win the game). These QB's will not win you much $ and you'll have to throw down a lot to win a little. But if you're looking for a sleeper to make some money with, I'd take a hard look at Pierre Thomas (10-1) & Reggie Wayne (10-1). Pierre Garcon is listed at the same odds as Wayne, giving us the indication that people think he will explode like against the Jets against Tracy Porter. The problem with this thinking is that Wayne could have a big game (even if Jabari Greer is matched up against him) because he is the better WR. If 2 WR's are going off at the same odds, you have to favor putting your $ on Wayne (who made some big plays 4 years ago in the Super Bowl). Thomas is a good play because he might bang in 2 or 3 TD's. With an effective running game, the Saints can keep the Colts off the field and keep the game at the pace they want it to be at. Thomas will be a key to doing that as he must get them in 2nd and 5's or 3rd and manageable's all night to keep the Saints offense moving down the field.
1) Largest lead by either team, o/u 15.5...both sides going off at -115. I'd say let's put 200 ON THE UNDER. I see this being a close game throughout with neither team leading by 16 or more. This is essentially 3 possessions and with the way both offense can move up & down the field, it's tough to see either defense really put on the type of show needed to win it for the Overs.
2) Saints 1st half pts, o/u 13!! Over is going off at -130, under at even. I'll say put 250 ON THE OVER. Two TD's for an impressive offense isn't that much to ask for. The Colts are the slower starters of these two teams (in comparison, they're 1st half total is 16). New Orleans will definately get at least 14 1st half points....this seems too good to be true.
3) This is one I got off of the B.S. Report. Will both teams make a FG of at least 33 yards? I will go against Bill and Chad Millman to say that YES it will happen. Both of these teams move the football, giving more chances to have drives stalled in the opponents territory. That could lead to more FG's tries than an average game but for a 33 yard FG, we need the offense to be stopped at the 16 yard line or further back. YES is the pick (+170) for me. No (-210) is where the $ is going so far. We'll put 150 fake units on the YES (+170).
4) Will there be a lead change in the 2nd half? (Yes +150, No -180) I'll put 250 fake units on Yes. I see this being a back and forth game, with the chance that one team goes into the half down a score (1-6) points and comes out to take the lead. The Colts do this all the time when they're losing and the Saints have had plenty of 2nd half lead changes in their games this season. I might make this my lock. Okay it's my lock. THERE WILL BE A LEAD CHANGE IN THE 2ND HALF!
5) Total # of Pass INT's in the game: (2.5.....Over +160, Under -200). I'll say go with the OVER in this one. Manning has thrown some picks this year and we could see at least one from him. The Colts defense is nasty in the back end, giving us at least 1 pick of Brees. I also see one of these great players getting one of those fluke picks (off a guy's leg or helmet) or something happening that could change the game. Over is the pick and we'll put our remaining 150 units on it.
Summary:
1) Largest Lead by Either Team: UNDER 15.5 (-115, 200 units)
2) Saints O/U 1st Half Pts: OVER 13 (-130, 250 units)
3) Both Teams Make a FG over 33 yds? YES (+170, 150 units)
4) Lead Change in the 2nd half? YES (+150, 250 units)
5) Total INT's OVER 2.5 (+160, 150 units)
MVP of the Game:
It's hard not to pick either QB (depending on who you think will win the game). These QB's will not win you much $ and you'll have to throw down a lot to win a little. But if you're looking for a sleeper to make some money with, I'd take a hard look at Pierre Thomas (10-1) & Reggie Wayne (10-1). Pierre Garcon is listed at the same odds as Wayne, giving us the indication that people think he will explode like against the Jets against Tracy Porter. The problem with this thinking is that Wayne could have a big game (even if Jabari Greer is matched up against him) because he is the better WR. If 2 WR's are going off at the same odds, you have to favor putting your $ on Wayne (who made some big plays 4 years ago in the Super Bowl). Thomas is a good play because he might bang in 2 or 3 TD's. With an effective running game, the Saints can keep the Colts off the field and keep the game at the pace they want it to be at. Thomas will be a key to doing that as he must get them in 2nd and 5's or 3rd and manageable's all night to keep the Saints offense moving down the field.
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